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Market Update: Welcome to Silly Season

Market Update: Welcome to Silly Season

July 09, 2020
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It’s July of an election year, which means we are entering Silly Season. Not only are we preparing for election ads to bombard our TVs and smartphones, we’re also dealing with other ramifications of politics in the market.

For example, let’s look at New York’s Coronavirus death rates compared to the rest of the country. As a country, the US has 405 deaths per million. The US is ranked 9th in the world by this ratio. 

If we removed New York as a separate country, it would have the worst ratio in the world at 1,660. If we then looked at the US x New York, the US would drop to 15th at 324 deaths per million. Governor Cuomo appears to be playing politics. (Really, who is not playing politics.)   

Data Manipulation as a Political Tool

Is the above a fair comparison? Not at all. New York has one of the highest populations densities in the world with a very well developed public transit system, both of which should cause greater difficulty in dealing with the virus.  

Are we playing politics and favoring one party over the other? This is not our intent. Our intent is to demonstrate the virus and the lockdowns are being used for political agendas. This is not surprising, as we are only XXX days until the Presidential Election.  

And the entire governmental system is a mess. The blame game is likely only going to heat up from here. Yes, the virus is real. Yes, there are states and cities trying to slow the spread through masks and/or lockdowns. Yes, both sides are play games with the data.  

Also, Yes, we as a nation will survive the virus. If we run a heat map over the last two weeks, we see the hotspots are fading.  

 

Our goal is not to add to the hyperbole. It is to approach the data and not let our emotions and political party affiliations take over.  

The Economy Is Gaining Strength

In positive news, the S&P 500 index has traded in a tight range for nearly a month, with 2965 marking the low point and Monday’s high at 3183 marking the top since June 10. The index has not closed below its 50-day moving average since April 23, and that line is rising fast just below current levels—3011 at Monday’s close. We are building up to the “golden cross” mentioned a few weeks ago.   

Follow GWS on YouTube

For the full video recap of this market summary webinar, follow GWS on YouTube. (If a recent episode isn’t posted there yet, it’s still in compliance review). And be sure to tune in to our weekly Gatewood Wealth Solutions Market Webinar to hear updates on the current state of the market and economy. As always, we welcome you to share the links to our broadcast on social media or with your friends and family. They are more than welcome to listen in and learn our perspective on the market and the economy.

If you have any questions, please contact your Lead Advisor or any other member of our team. We are here for you.

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Disclosures:

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Dollar cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities regardless of fluctuation in price levels of such securities. An investor should consider their ability to continue purchasing through fluctuating price levels. Such a plan does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets.

 

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