Fortress Gatewood: Bear Market Ready, Always.
When markets drop sharply—like they did in response to the latest Trump tariff announcements—emotions run high, headlines swirl, and investors often make costly decisions. We get it. Downturns feel uncomfortable, especially when they’re fast, steep, or prolonged.
But here’s what we know from decades of managing wealth through every kind of market cycle: the worst days in the market are often immediately followed by the best. Panic may feel natural—but it’s rarely profitable.
At Gatewood Wealth Solutions, we don’t just react to volatility. We prepare for it. That’s why every client benefits from our time-tested approach we call Fortress Gatewood—a strategy purpose-built to keep you Bear Market Ready.
A Strategy Built for Uncertainty
Rather than try to predict the unpredictable, Fortress Gatewood is designed to weather storms, seize opportunities, and help you avoid panic-driven mistakes. It’s not just a mindset—it’s a structured plan built around time segmentation that gives each dollar a purpose and timeline:
Moat Ring 1: Cash (Immediate Preservation)
We recommend clients hold at least 2 years of spending in cash or cash alternatives. This liquidity buffer is your first line of defense—so you don’t have to sell investments during a downturn just to fund your life.
Moat Ring 2: Fixed Income (Mid-Term Stability)
We allocate 5–8 years of spending in high-quality fixed income. Bonds act as a second moat, with a goal of offering stability and income while giving your equities the time they need to rebound.
Moat Ring 3: Equities (Long-Term Growth)
The rest of your portfolio is positioned for growth, invested in globally diversified equities with a 7–10 year time horizon. This long view helps you stay focused on your goals—not the day-to-day headlines.
Why This Works—Even in the Worst of Times
Here’s what history tells us about market declines and recoveries:
- Dot-Com Crash (2000–2002): -49.1% decline | 7.2 years to full recovery
- Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009): -56.8% decline | 5.5 years to recovery
- COVID-19 Crash (2020): -34% decline | Full recovery in ~6 months
- 2022 Bear Market: -27.55% | Recovery still underway
With 2 years of cash and 5–8 years of bonds, our clients don’t need to tap into their equity investments during downturns. That means they can remain confidently invested—giving their portfolios the opportunity needed for recovery and growth potential.
Why It Matters Now
In times like this, when fear creeps in and markets swing wildly on breaking headlines (even false ones), our clients know they’re not at the mercy of the market. They have a strategy, a plan, and a team. Rather than letting complacency take root during the good times at all-time market highs, they set aside profits to strengthen their defenses.
They’re not guessing. They’re prepared.
The Gatewood Difference
While others try to time the market or soothe with empty platitudes, we provide clarity, structure, and a strategy built with a goal to endure. Fortress Gatewood helps you weather volatility, stay aligned with your long-term goals, and build lasting wealth with confidence.
Because we believe your financial future deserves more than just hope—it deserves a fortress.
Important Clarification on Life Stage Strategy
Fortress Gatewood strategy is built around aligning your portfolio with your personal time horizon, income needs, and life stage. While the 2 years of cash and 5–8 years of bonds approach is ideal for clients in or near retirement—who are actively drawing from their portfolio—it’s not a one-size-fits-all model.
For younger clients who are still in their earning and accumulation years, we typically recommend a higher allocation to equities and lower levels of cash and bonds, since their income covers current expenses and their investment time horizon is longer. That said, maintaining strategic cash reserves (typically 3–6 months of living expenses) is still critical for emergencies and flexibility.
The core principle remains: structure your portfolio so you don’t need to sell during a downturn. Whether you’re accumulating or withdrawing, Fortress Gatewood adapts to give you confidence and preservation—tailored to your life stage.
Ready to Build Your Financial Fortress?
If you’re tired of reacting to markets and ready to plan with purpose, let’s talk. Our team can help you build a resilient strategy—one that’s designed with a goal to keep you confidently invested through whatever the future holds.
Contact us today to see how Fortress Gatewood can support your goals, your confidence in the long-term, and your family’s financial future.
“This Too Shall Pass.” The Five-Year Anniversary of the Covid Crash.
“This Time it’s Different.”
The markets have given us a lot to digest lately. From shifting tariffs under the Trump administration to Elon Musk’s influence on the rise (and rollercoaster) of DOGE, plus rapid changes in federal policies—uncertainty has been the dominant theme. And if there’s one thing markets hate, it’s uncertainty. But while the headlines may suggest that “this time is different,” we’re reminded again that history often tells a reassuringly familiar story: this too shall pass.
The Uncertainty Factor
We’re seeing how quickly investors react to potential trade wars, personnel shifts, and talks of cutting wasteful or fraudulent spending. When so many unknowns hit at once, markets struggle to price it all in. Yet history reminds us that markets have weathered many storms before.
When COVID-19 first struck, markets plummeted before recovering in record time. That tells us something about how investor psychology works: once the most severe unknowns become known—even if they’re negative—markets tend to re-price and move on.
A Look at Recent Volatility
In order to put the current volatility in context, consider the COVID-19 crash.
- Worst days since 2020:
- March 16, 2020: -11.98%
- March 12, 2020: -9.51%
- March 9, 2020: -7.60%
- Best days since 2020:
- March 24, 2020: +9.38%
- March 13, 2020: +9.29%
- March 26, 2020: +6.24%
In just 33 days, from February 19 to March 23, 2020, the S&P 500 fell 33.9%—a truly historic plunge. Yet, by August 18, 2020, barely six months later, the index had fully rebounded, even though the world was far from normal.
What changed? By March 23, the uncertainty about global shutdowns was, to some degree, factored in. The market had enough information to price the situation and begin its climb.
Perspective Through History
Since 1980, the S&P 500 has had an average intra-year drop of 14%. That means, in any given year, you can expect some sharp swings. Despite these drawdowns, the index still finished positive in 34 of the last 45 years.
Yes, tariffs can rattle short-term confidence. Yes, DOGE hype can come and go. Yes, federal cuts can spark anxiety. But these are just the latest in a long history of events that cause market volatility. Historically, markets have proved resilient in the face of everything from recessions to pandemics and they tend to reward disciplined investors over time.
The Power of Diversification
The current landscape also underscores why diversification is critical.
- International holdings are significantly outperforming U.S. stocks this year.
- Value stocks have been outpacing growth stocks.
- Fixed income offers yields comfortably in the 4% range, providing stability amid the market’s daily fluctuations.
If you’re only invested in a narrow slice of the market, you feel every bump. A well-diversified portfolio, on the other hand, can help cushion the ride when uncertainty hits.
Staying Disciplined in Uncertain Times
As the news cycle churns, it’s easy to think, “This time is different.” But if recent history has taught us anything, it’s that overreacting to short-term market swings can often do more harm than good.
- Volatility is part of the investing journey.
- Uncertainty is inevitable.
- Long-term perspective usually wins the day.
Whether the market is panicking over tariffs, new technologies, or dramatic fiscal changes, remember that reacting out of fear can lock in losses and undermine the very reason we invest: to grow our wealth over time.
The Bottom Line
Market uncertainty is never comfortable, but it’s not new. We’ve seen swift downturns before, and we’ll see them again. Historically, markets reward those who stay focused on their goals rather than getting caught up in the headlines.
When uncertainty is high, it helps to revisit your investment plan, lean on diversification, and keep a steady hand on the wheel. While the players and policies may change from one administration to the next, what remains is the market’s ability to adapt and recover, often more quickly than we expect.
In other words: this too shall pass.
Important Disclosures:
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.
The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor, Member FINRA & SIPC.
Trump’s Proposed Tariffs: Economic Weapon or Unintended Consequences?
Introduction
Tariffs have long been a powerful but controversial tool in economic policy, influencing trade balances, industry growth, and global relations. While tariffs are often used to protect domestic industries and jobs, they can also increase costs, disrupt supply chains, and provoke retaliatory trade measures.
With President Donald Trump proposing new tariffs in his second term, it is critical to examine the potential economic benefits and consequences of these policies.
How Tariffs Work & Why Politicians Use Them
A tariff is a tax imposed on imported goods, making them more expensive and giving domestic industries a competitive edge. Governments justify tariffs for several reasons:
- ✔ Protecting Domestic Industries – Shields local businesses from cheaper foreign competitors.
- ✔ Reducing Trade Deficits – Encourages domestic consumption over imports.
- ✔ Leverage in Trade Negotiations – Used as a bargaining tool in international trade deals.
- ✔ Revenue Generation – Provides direct tax revenue to the government.
President Trump previously implemented tariffs as part of his “America First” trade policy. In his second term, he has proposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, as well as reciprocal tariffs to match the duties imposed on U.S. goods by other countries.
While these measures aim to strengthen U.S. industry, they also carry potential risks, including higher consumer prices and trade retaliation from global partners.
The Pros & Cons of Tariffs: Who Wins and Who Loses?
✔ Potential Benefits of Tariffs
- Job Protection & Domestic Growth – Industries like steel, textiles, and technology benefit from reduced foreign competition.
- Stronger Local Manufacturing – Encourages companies to reinvest in U.S. production rather than outsourcing.
- Negotiation Leverage – Tariffs pressure foreign nations to renegotiate trade agreements that benefit American businesses.
- Short-Term Gains for Farmers & Key Sectors – Temporary relief from low-price competition abroad.
Example: U.S. steel tariffs helped boost domestic production but raised costs for automakers and construction firms.
❌ The Negative Effects of Tariffs
- Higher Costs for Consumers – Businesses pass tariff costs onto consumers, raising prices for food, electronics, and automobiles.
- Inflationary Pressures – Tariffs increase overall inflation, leading to higher interest rates and slowing economic growth.
- Retaliatory Tariffs Hurt U.S. Exports – Countries like China and the EU respond by targeting American industries (e.g., soybeans, whiskey).
- Disruptions to Global Supply Chains – Industries reliant on imported raw materials (e.g., automotive, tech, and manufacturing) face higher costs and production delays.
Example: The U.S.-China Trade War (2018-2020) led to higher prices on imported goods, costing the average American household $1,277 per year.
Impact on Inflation & Global Trade
One of the biggest risks of tariffs is inflation. As tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, companies pass these expenses to consumers, raising prices across the economy.
✔ Short-Term Effects: Higher prices on targeted imports (e.g., electronics, clothing, food).
❌ Long-Term Effects: Persistent inflation pressures force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, slowing investment and job growth.
Globally, tariffs disrupt trade flows as companies shift production to countries with lower trade barriers. Nations impacted by U.S. tariffs may form alternative trade agreements, reducing American influence in global markets.
Example: After U.S. tariffs, China increased soybean imports from Brazil, permanently reducing U.S. market share.
Are Tariffs a Sustainable Economic Strategy?
✔ When Used Selectively: Tariffs can protect key industries and pressure foreign nations into fairer trade deals.
❌ Overuse Leads to Economic Slowdowns: Broad tariff policies raise costs, fuel inflation, and trigger global trade conflicts.
With President Trump’s proposed second-term tariffs, policymakers must carefully weigh short-term benefits against long-term risks. If implemented without strategic adjustments, tariffs could exacerbate inflation and slow economic recovery.
Conclusion: Finding a Balanced Trade Approach
Rather than relying solely on tariffs, the U.S. could consider:
✔ Trade Agreements that Promote Fair Competition (e.g., stronger deals with allies).
✔ Tax Incentives for Domestic Manufacturing (instead of penalizing imports).
✔ Investments in Workforce Development & Technology (to make U.S. industries more competitive globally).
Ultimately, tariffs should be used as a precise tool, not a broad economic policy. While they can shield domestic industries, their long-term costs—higher prices, inflation, and trade retaliation—must be carefully managed.
What’s Next?
As the Trump administration considers new tariffs, businesses and consumers should prepare for potential price increases, supply chain adjustments, and shifts in global trade dynamics. The key to long-term economic success lies in balancing protectionist policies with sustainable growth strategies.
Tariff Impacts: Positives and Negatives.
The table below outlines the potential positive and negative impacts of tariffs across various industries and countries. While tariffs can provide benefits such as protecting domestic industries and increasing government revenue, they also introduce challenges such as higher consumer prices, trade disruptions, and economic slowdowns.
Industry/Country | Positive Impact | Negative Impact |
U.S. Steel & Aluminum | Higher domestic production, protection from foreign competition | Higher material costs for automakers, increased consumer prices |
U.S. Agriculture | Temporary price relief for farmers, government subsidies | Retaliatory tariffs reduced exports, financial losses for farmers |
U.S. Manufacturing | Encourages local production, protects jobs, less foreign competition for domestic manufacturers | Higher costs for raw materials, reduced global competitiveness |
Technology Sector | Incentive to develop domestic semiconductor chip production | Increased prices for electronics, supply chain disruptions |
Retail & Consumer Goods | Potential growth and support for U.S. textile industry | Higher prices for consumers, inflation risk |
China | Encourages domestic consumption, reduced reliance on U.S. imports | Export losses, reduced access to U.S. markets |
European Union | Increased protection for local businesses due to reduced U.S. imports | Tariffs on U.S. goods led to retaliatory measures, trade disruptions |
Mexico & Canada | Possible renegotiation of trade agreements | Reduced trade volumes with U.S., higher import costs |
Vietnam & Southeast Asia | New manufacturing investments, as companies seek tariff-free production | Gains at the expense of traditional U.S. trade partners |
U.S. Government Revenue | Increased tax revenue for the government from tariffs | Economic slowdown from reduced trade |
Important Disclosures:
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.
Investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.
This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax or legal advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific situation with a qualified tax or legal advisor.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a Registered Investment Advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC
The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
Mastering Retirement Reserve Cash Management
At Gatewood Wealth Solutions, we’re not just about preparing for the best; we’re about being ready for the worst. Our approach to retirement income planning revolves around a core philosophy: keeping our clients “Bear Market Ready, but Bull Market Positioned.” In this blog post, we’ll delve into our robust methodology for cash management in retirement, highlighting the importance of cash reserves and strategic investment planning.
Understanding the Cash Target
Steps to Calculate the Cash Target
1. Assess Annual Expenses: We start by evaluating our clients’ total annual expenses, including lifestyle costs, taxes, insurance, and other financial obligations.
2. Review Income: Next, we analyze the client’s income streams, ensuring we have a clear picture of their financial inflows.
3. Incorporate Market Outlook: Our Investment Committee routinely evaluates market conditions to adjust the Cash Target Timeframe. This is the recommended duration, in months, for which one should hold enough cash to cover total expenses, tailored to the current economic environment
4. Calculate the Cash Target: Using a specialized formula, we compute the precise number of months required to cover one’s total expense needs, subtracting regular income received. This Cash Target is based on the client’s expenses, income, and the designated Cash Target Timeframe.
5. Fund the Cash Hub Account: Once the Cash Target is determined, we allocate funds accordingly, so our clients have the necessary cash reserves in place.
Retirement Income Distribution Planning
The cash hub account is just one small part of our overall distribution planning approach, which you can see below. Our planning team constantly turns these funnels on and off based on our clients’ specific financial situations and life goals. We can make sure we correctly put our clients’ money to work for them while maximizing their tax-saving strategies.

Cash – Invest or Keep?
Understanding the role of cash in retirement is crucial. While investments offer growth potential, cash provides stability and liquidity, acting as a safeguard against market volatility. By maintaining an adequate cash reserve, individuals can avoid the need to sell off investments during market downturns, thus preserving their long-term financial security.
Real Life Example
Consider Jane Smith, who illustrates the significant impact of having a cash reserve during retirement. By strategically tapping into her cash reserves during market downturns, Jane was able to preserve her IRA balance and substantially enhance her long-term financial outcome.
Life Stage Considerations
Adapting to Market Conditions
Our Investment Committee remains vigilant, adjusting the number of months for one’s Cash Target in retirement to market highs and downturns. This is crucial when clients rely on their investments for retirement income. In bearish markets, we will draw from cash reserves to avoid liquidating assets during unfavorable conditions, whereas in bullish markets, we rebuild cash reserves to the target.
Conclusion
At Gatewood Wealth Solutions, we believe in empowering our clients with robust retirement income planning strategies. By strategically managing cash reserves and investments, we aim to ensure financial stability and long-term prosperity for all our clients. If you’re ready to take control of your retirement finances, we’re here to guide you every step of the way.
Important Disclosures:
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.
What Is a Good Price-to-Earnings Ratio?
This week, the market spooked a bit following the potential rise of the Covid-19 Delta variant. In this post, we’ll quickly walk through short-term bond market behavior before diving more deeply into our main topic: understanding how to read a price-to-earnings ratio.
Starting with the technical side of things, you’ll notice the bond market showed a safety trade last week — likely from the Delta variant and expectations of a possible lockdown again. As a result, Treasury yields on the 10-year have gotten down to 1.13, which is very low.

This graph also reflects the scared, cyclical side of the equity market. You can see week after week, mid and small-cap values continue to move lower, while large-cap growth remains at the top.
In summary: after an initial drop in the market due to fear, we’re starting to see it rebound.
Price-to-Earnings Ratio
Now, on to our main topic for today: Understanding the price-to-earnings ratio. We’ll discuss what it is, why it’s valuable, and how to identify a fair price-to-earnings — or P/E — ratio. The P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the market value price per share by the company’s earnings per share.

Source: Investopedia
Since you’re dividing the price by earnings, the P/E ratio tells you exactly how many dollars you’re spending for each dollar of earning on the stock.
The main benefit of the price-to-earnings ratio is that it allows you to compare the prices of different stocks quickly and easily.
Now, let’s take this one step further. Research shows that stocks are worth the present value of the cash you could take out over the lifetime of the stock. So, just looking at the P/E ratio may not be enough. You also need to understand the stock’s cash flow behavior since, over the long-term, that’s what will drive stock performance. Finally, you must figure out a way to discount for the future value of those earnings.
How does that work? First, think of the valuation of cash flow for the S&P 500. When analysts calculate that valuation, they use both dividends and cash buybacks. So, you must project what both of those will be for your stocks to get your payout ratio. Then, you’ll divide that by your equity risk premium and a growth rate. How to Identify a Fair P/E Ratio
Let’s look at historical P/Es. In this chart, we see P/Es around the range of 16.5. Right now, we’re around 21.5. For reference, the average P/E for the S&P 500 has historically ranged from 13 to 15. To determine if a P/E ratio is fair, you should compare it to other stocks in the same industry, as well as relevant benchmarks.

We hear all the time from clients, “I don’t want to invest when P/Es are above average.” But if you’re afraid of high P/Es, you would only have had two chances to invest in the last five years: when the Fed tightened in 2018 and during Covid when P/E had fallen entirely, and the world was ending. If you didn’t invest during those times, you would have missed out on 22% returns in 2017, 30% in 2019, and 18% in the last two years.
Not only is it a bad strategy to assume, “High P/Es man we have to sell,” it also overlooks that high P/E can be an indicator that the market is thinking there’s going to be substantial growth in earnings. So, the reason you’re paying a higher P/E could be that analysts simply aren’t as bullish as the market.
What This Means for 2021
If we’re trying to set a price target for the end of the year, we need to look at where earnings will be. Then, to use a forward multiple, we need to see where our earnings will be at the end of next year. So, we use a consensus estimate (meaning an average of all analysts’ projections). The end of the year is about $191 on the S&P 500 in earnings. Looking out to the end of 2022, we see about a 12% growth rate to get $214 in earnings. So, we get a price objective target by the end of the year of 4,600.
This was a base scenario; let’s consider a bull and bear. In a bull scenario, we might say earnings grow at 15%, and the market does want to pay a higher multiple. Now, we’re starting to see a price target of $5,000, a 15% upside of where we are. In a bear market, we might see earnings coming down to 8% and pay a lower multiple with a downside of 10%.
For a full deep dive into P/E and current market behavior, be sure to watch our recap video below and on our YouTube channel. Of course, your GWS team is always available for questions, too!

——
For detailed performance metrics, please don’t hesitate to contact your lead advisor. And, in the meantime, be sure to keep up to date on Gatewood Wealth Solutions through our daily 3x3s and our weekly market insights on our YouTube, LinkedIn, and Facebook accounts.
Disclosures:
Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. Therefore, the opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.
All performance references are historical and are no guarantee of future results. In addition, all indices are unmanaged and may not be invested directly.
Securities and advisory services are offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC. All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.