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Investment Whitepaper
Is the ITR 2030 Depression Forecast Realistic?
ITR Economics forecasts a Great Depression beginning around 2030 and bottoming near 2036. The structural concerns behind that forecast are real: an aging population, rising healthcare costs, entitlement underfunding, and growing federal debt. The investment strategy it has inspired, moving to cash and foreign bonds and re-entering stocks near the bottom, works only if one specific kind of downturn arrives on schedule.
This free whitepaper from Gatewood Wealth Solutions examines what the forecast gets right, what it may be missing, and how families can prepare for several possible versions of the 2030s instead of betting on one. It includes original monetary research from economist Dr. Patrick Newman of the University of Tampa. Download your free copy below.
SNEAK PEEK
What's Inside the Whitepaper
The ITR Economics 2030 forecast was first laid out in the 2014 book Prosperity in the Age of Decline by Brian and Alan Beaulieu. This paper takes its concerns seriously, then asks whether the recommended strategy holds up against current federal data, a century of monetary history, and developments the original model may not have accounted for.
The whitepaper covers:
- What the forecast gets right: the demographic, healthcare, Social Security, and debt pressures documented in current federal data
- Three questions the forecast doesn’t fully answer: model currency, Japan’s lost decade, and whether cash and foreign bonds would actually help
- Original monetary research: Dr. Patrick Newman’s True Money Supply dataset, spanning 1913 to 2025, and why he views a 1930s-style deflationary collapse as highly unlikely
- The variable that wasn’t in the model: how AI and robotics could change the long-term productivity math
- A framework built on preparation, not prediction: the Gatewood Planning Foundation and how it’s designed to hold up across multiple outcomes
