COVID 2.0

Updated: Aug 3, 2021

Here in St. Louis, politicians have been flip-flopping on the mask mandate in the county and city, now that the CDC has released new Covid-19 guidelines. Most notably, the organization recommends even vaccinated individuals wear masks indoors in public when in areas of high transmission due to the prevalence of the new delta variant.


Today, we will uncover what signals impact the market. So forget about all this political talk that you hear in the news and learn more about the data behind the action below.


Increase in COVID Cases

We're now seeing a rise in COVID cases across the states. Louisiana has the highest daily average case rate in the United States, with the U.S. only having a 49% vaccination rate.

Gatewood Wealth Solutions COVID-19 Daily Average State by State

Then, if you look at the United States as a whole, you can see the behavior of the hotspots. For example, COVID cases show up in the Ozarks, move down to Springfield, cross into Arkansas and Louisiana, and Florida.

Gatewood Wealth Solutions COVID Hot Spots Average Daily Cases per 100,000 people in the past week

When you look closer at the Missouri hotspots, you'll notice a slight uptick in deaths with a decent increase in hospitalizations. However, taking a closer look at the hotspots versus risk levels, you can infer the city of St. Louis is not one of the risky places. St. Louis is only number 77 out of 117 counties. Therefore, the overarching question is: is there a relationship between the number of people vaccinated versus the amount of Covid-19 cases?

Gatewood Wealth Solutions COVID Hot Spots Missouri vs. Risk Levels

Vaccinations

With most vaccines, the higher the percentage of vaccinated individuals, the less likely an outbreak will occur. But when we look at the numbers of Covid-19 vaccinations in each country, specifically Gibraltar, a region of the United Kingdom, you can see surging cases.

Gatewood Wealth Solutions Share of People Vaccinated against COVID-19, Julie 26, 2021

Gibraltar has a 116% vaccination rate, which may not be entirely accurate because data is not always clean. Canada is second to Gibraltar with a small number of cases. The United Kingdom is ranked third with a high rate of increased cases. Also, Sweden's vaccination rate is higher than the U.S. but lower than the United Kingdom. Sweden has not seen a significant uptick and has zero deaths some days. ​


Professor Neil Ferguson, the controversial epidemiologist who predicted as many as 200,000 COVID cases a day in the U.K. if restrictions were lifted, is now facing scrutiny after infections continued to drop for the 6th day in a row. Again, this proves models don't always reflect reality.


Per Capita Deaths

Gatewood Wealth Solutions Cumulative confirmed COVID19 deaths per million people, July 26, 2021

Every country got hit by the coronavirus differently. Still, because we have better therapeutics, even with increasing cases, it may not have the same impact on the market as it did in the past.


For a full deep dive into the second wave of COVID-19 and current market behavior, watch our recap video on our YouTube channel and SUBSCRIBE!

Gatewood Wealth Solutions YouTube

For detailed performance metrics, please don't hesitate to contact your lead advisor.


And, in the meantime, be sure to keep up to date on Gatewood Wealth Solutions through our daily 3x3s and our weekly market insights on our YouTube, LinkedIn, and Facebook accounts.


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Disclosures:


Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. Therefore, the opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.


All performance references are historical and are no guarantee of future results. In addition, all indices are unmanaged and may not be invested directly.


Securities and advisory services are offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC. All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.


The opinions in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

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