Outlook



The December 8th Safe Harbor date came and went, and the political sphere has been abuzz ever since. We know Texas filed a suit again the four states challenging the constitutionality of the election results, and we just heard Missouri has joined in that crusade, too. Let’s dive into the idea that we have a contested election. It’s a Hail Mary type of strategy, but it still falls in the realm of contested election given the legal proceedings involved.


The Trump legal team actually has not put forth many technical legal arguments. Most of their attempts have been thrown out due to a lack of “standing.”


What is standing? From a legal standpoint, it means that there has to be some type of legitimacy or remedy within the court. Usually to have standing, you have to have three things:

  1. There has actually been harm. You can’t sue somebody unless you can show harm actually happened.

  2. It has to be you brining the suit. I can’t sue about John’s car getting hit.

  3. The court has to actually be able to address it. If God sends a meteor that crushes my house, the court has no jurisdiction.

The next big step is whether or not the Supreme Court accepts this case. It seems they are putting all their chips behind the Texas lawsuit at the moment. My bet is that this is the Trump legal team’s last-ditch effort. There may be other components if they don’t get this standing, but this is where their focus is for now.


Below is a review of the election legal challenges by state:


Wisconsin:

  • Trump v. The Wisconsin Election Commission: Alleging “Unlawful and unconstitutional acts.

  • Wisconsin Voters Alliance v. WI Elections Commission.

Michigan:

Pennsylvania:

  • Republican Party of PA versus Boockvar. The U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito issued a temporary order in the Supreme Court case requiring Pennsylvania to segregate ballots that arrived after Election Day.

  • Donald J. Trump for President, Inc. v. Boockvar. Supreme Court Justice, Samuel Alito, changes the date of the hearing before December 8th.

Georgia

  • Trump v. Raffensperger: violations of election code by abonnement of Georgia law.

  • Boland v. Raffensperger: 20,312 ballots were cast by out of state residents.

  • Wood v. Raffensperger was denied and must be appealed to the US Supreme Court.

  • Pearson v. Kemp: Alleges massive fraud via dominion voting system. This case was dismissed because the court does not have jurisdiction to hear case. The hearing was due December 7th.

Nevada

  • Law et al v. Whitmer: alleging irregularities, improprieties and fraud. This case was dismissed by Carson City judge and is appealing to NV Supreme Court.

Arizona

  • Ward v. Jackson, et al. This case was denied and will appeal to the Supreme Court.

  • The leaders of the Arizona State Legislature demands forensic exam of Dominion machines due to a belief of voter fraud occurring.


United States Politics

There are two items of contention in Congress that are the reason we haven’t seen a stimulus package pass yet. Mitch McConnell and the Republicans want liability protection so companies can’t be sued if they open and an employee gets coronavirus. The Democrats want additional aid sent to state and local governments.


Still, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says a $908 billion coronavirus stimulus package compromise is within reach. This package is believed to have the most bipartisan support of the multiple packages in the past regarding the COVID-19 pandemic.


In California, the Republican Party, GOP, picked up 4 congressional seats in California since 2018 midterm election, because Christy Smith concedes to incumbent Republican Mike Garcia.


In Georgia, there is a runoff as some Wall Street Democrats are sitting out Georgia Senate races because they would like a split government.


COVID-19

For the first time in the United States, Florida will require a polymerase chain reaction test, PCR, which can detect a sample of the COVID-19 virus.

Also, mask mandates may not be a factor in slowing the curve. Florida has also removed capacity restrictions and is “open” with no legal mask mandate. However, they are also in more mild temperatures and most are still wearing masks.


On the opposite side of the world in the Eurozone, Sweden enacts restrictions because its pandemic experiment failed after new surges came about regarding infections.

Lockdowns are causing tremendous downwards spiral all around our world as well. The World Food Program Director stated that “270 million people now are marching toward starvation in the wake of COVID-19” and next year is going to be “catastrophic based on what we’re seeing at this stage of the game.”


However, vaccines are already starting to be released in Europe and will be soon in the U.S.

The Economy

Weekly jobless claims fall, while initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 75,000 to a seasonally adjusted 712,000 for the week ended on November 28th. That is two straight weekly increases, but jobless benefits remain high.


The U.S. job growth slowed sharply in November. Employers added just 245,000 jobs last month, down from 610,000 jobs in October, the Labor Department reports. This is probably the combination of stricter lockdowns and employers that are just being cautious.


The Market- Yield Curve

The yield spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 2-year Treasury note is now at its highest since the start of the Great Money Pump. This means there is more incentive then ever for banks to put money into the system via loans, which is added upside pressure on money growth.

The most common investment themes lately are inflation, the debt bubble (equity over fixed), the U.S. focus on small cap and automation, and people moving away from urban areas.


Money Supply

Annualized Growth Change: For the third week in a row, the 13-week money supply (M2NSA) annualized growth increased. The latest numbers show a climb from 11.3% to 11.8%. To provide more perspective on how massive the money pump has been, here is the change in money supply on a weekly basis since 1981 (see second image below).


---

For real-time updates, be sure to tune in on Tuesday – Thursday on Facebook and YouTube Live for our “Daily 3x3” livestreams and Wednesday for “Market Insights.” Follow GWS on Facebook and YouTube so you never miss a broadcast!


Disclosures:

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Dollar cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities regardless of fluctuation in price levels of such securities. An investor should consider their ability to continue purchasing through fluctuating price levels. Such a plan does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets.

0 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All