Irregularities within the election results made headlines this week. They may or may not be a concern. As always, our goal at GWS is to be data driven and share just the facts.
The Trump administration is challenging the election result. There are several paths to a Trump victory, some of which would be underhanded, but they do exist. We are going to report on the situation and the data and do our best to not be partisan. HOWEVER, it is likely going to come across one-sided since many people feel like the election is over, but this could go the other way.
State of Election
For President-Elect Joe Biden, cabinet picks will be coming. Wall Street and Silicon Valley poured an enormous amount of money into his campaign. However, he needs a handful of Republicans to confirm the seats.
Rumors and Concerns
Richard Stengel is leading the Biden Transition Team and has written op-eds to limit free speech.
Lael Brainard for Secretary of Treasury is considered a moderate, and it is not Elizabeth Warren.
Philip Washington is in charge of the Department of Transportation and Amtrack. He tends to favor making driving more difficult to shift people to mass transit.
Bernie Sanders is speculated to join Biden cabinet as Labor Secretary. This could lead to higher minimum wage laws and could help with inroads President Trump made into the union base. However, it could reclassify Uber and Lift drivers as employees going against tech companies.
President-elect Joe Biden appears ready to shift things in the opposite direction. Wall Street has benefited from the Trump administration’s push to loosen bank rules and weaken post-crisis financial regulation. Christopher E. Campbell, assistant secretary of the Treasury for financial institutions from 2017-18 stated, “from my perspective, the landing teams were folks that appeared to be more activist than centrist.”
Pending Lawsuits
All states have greater than 98% of the vote counted and the Election Results have Biden with 306 EV and Trump at 232. As exhausting as it is, let’s look at what states have either legal cases or recounts. Many of the legal challenges are not making it through the court systems; however, this fits into the Trump administrative narrative of “deep state corruption,” so it is not effective at challenging the belief for many President Trump voters.
There are irregularities in the polling numbers, but irregularities are not proof of fraud. There are always irregularities in election data. Rasmussen (right leaning polling agency) has tweeted about them. It is also not a new political tactic to bring doubt in elections (though I would say this time is many magnitudes higher).
Compounding the problem is the media ignoring the reality of election fraud. A former judge of election and Democratic committeeperson from South Philadelphia has pleaded guilty to accepting thousands of dollars in bribes to inflate the vote totals for three Democratic candidates. Matt Barnyard, who worked for the Trump campaign, has been analyzing the data. It is difficult, costly, and time consuming. He has NOT found significant evidence or anything that is actionable. Keep this in mind when people saying there is no evidence of fraudulent votes.
Legal Cases
Pay attention to Sidney Powell; she does not play around. Sidney has made very direct accusations with strong language regarding voter fraud. She says they will present the evidence this week. The FEC Chairman, a Trump appointment, also says he believes there is voter fraud in key states.
Alan Dershowitz, a democrat constitutional scholar from Harvard, said the Trump has the best chance with PA lawsuit — which is a different take compared to other analyses.
Moving from Centralization to Decentralization
Faith in the election process is down. People are urging democrats to move to Georgia. However, it is likely unconstitutional, Georgia Law for Runoff Elections: GA Constitution, Article 2, Section 1, Paragraph 2 states that only those residents who were eligible to vote in the general election will be eligible to vote in the runoff.
No matter the outcome, there is going to 70+ million people who will feel the election was illegitimate and stolen. Seven in 10 Republicans say the 2020 election was not free and fair. This is expediting a move away from mainstream media and social media technology companies, and this is only going to exacerbate the current echo chambers. Combine this with “work from anywhere” and the ability for people to more easily create their own communities, and we can expect the polarization to move from the virtual world to the real one.
COVID-19
Cases globally continue to climb. The United States is still in the process of peaking and death cases are trending up. Europe is beginning to peak as well.
Mass Society vs. Network Society
The WFA is gaining traction and concerns about COVID in populated areas and large cities are seeing an exodus. More than 300,000 New Yorkers have bailed from the Big Apple in the last eight months, new stats show. If this trend continues, there are going to be serious issues on raising taxes. We have already seen suggestion of WFH taxes. Deutsche Bank Proposes A 5% "Work from Home" Privilege Tax.
A divided government likely means a reduced stimulus package and a Biden presidency is unable to move his “plan” forward. The CPI came in at 1.5%. This is below the 2% target, but there is a lot of money in the system. We continue to watch for concerns. The latest inflation data, just in today, shows the Producer Price Index up 0.5% for the 12 months ended in October.
The Market & Money Supply
A sudden default by AAA-Rated Chinese state-owned coal miner sent shockwaves across markets. Also, Apple abandoned an iPhone assembler in China after labor abuses were uncovered in violation of Apple’s Supplier Code of Conduct.
For the first time in 18 weeks, money supply growth has not declined. Normally, 10.7% money growth as very strong. However, given the spectacular growth in money supply over the summer which peaked at 61.7% in early July makes the market vulnerable.
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The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Dollar cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities regardless of fluctuation in price levels of such securities. An investor should consider their ability to continue purchasing through fluctuating price levels. Such a plan does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets.