Mail-In Ballots Results & Risks

Updated: Dec 21, 2020



As of this writing, the election is not over. It may be that Joe Biden will be the next president, but the election process is still moving forward. What is unusual with this election is that we are not certain the outcome as of this time. There is a potential path for President Trump. This is why he has not conceded. DO NOT MISTAKE THIS AS A STATEMENT OF PRESIDENT TRUMP IS GOING TO WIN. This is just trying to understand where we are in the process so we can make data dependent decisions.


Voter Fraud

The following are examples of the most egregious, widely observed and reported examples of election-day fraud on November 21, 2004 from the U.S. on Ukraine elections:

  • Illegal Use of Absentee Ballots.

  • Opposition Observers Ejected.

  • North Korean-Style Turnout in the East: Turnout in the pro-Yanukovych eastern oblasts was unnaturally high.

  • Mobile Ballot Box Fraud: In the second round of the election, the number of voters who supposedly cast ballots at home using mobile ballot boxes was double that of the first round.

  • Computer Data Allegedly Altered to Favor Yanukovych.

  • Reports of Opposition Fraud.

Remember, this has to go to court to determine if it is an indicator of fraud. This is not settled by fact checkers or tweets.


Election Process

Recounting ballots is not a partisan issue. Jasper County vote count error, now corrected, gives Hart lead in unsettled U.S. House race. The razor-thin margin in Iowa's 2nd District U.S. House race flipped in favor of Democrat Rita Hart on Friday after Jasper County corrected what the county auditor and secretary of state said in a joint news conference was human error in reporting the vote total.

President Trump has not gave up and is going to go all out to prove that he is the winner of the 2020 U.S. election. What does he have to lose? Emily Murphy, the administrator of the General Services Administration (GSA), must make an “ascertainment” that Biden has won the presidency before the transition can contact federal agencies or access the millions of dollars set aside for the team. While the Associated Press and POLITICO have determined that Biden has won the election, President Donald Trump has not conceded, and recounts are ongoing. “The simple fact is this election is far from over,” Trump said in a statement Saturday. “Legal votes decide who is president, not the news media.”


Also, President Bush says Trump has the right to request election recount, while Mexico’s president refuses to congratulate Joe Biden. The Mexican president had an election stolen from him. This is unlikely a claim of a stolen election, but just a caution. There is also nothing improper by congratulating a projected winner.


The Constitution

Lawsuits can flip votes and electors can choose the candidate. If 1+ 2 fail, vote goes to the House of Representatives and each state gets 1 vote, there are more Red states than Blue.

  • Art. I, ¬ß4, cl. 1, which states "The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof."

  • Art. II, ¬ß1, cl. 2, which states "Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector."

Contested States

Pennsylvania- 20 electoral votes, 45K vote difference, recount margin, and a lawsuit pending.


Nevada- 6 electoral votes, 35K vote difference, recount margin, and a lawsuit pending.


Wisconsin- 10 electoral votes, 20K vote difference, recount margin, and a lawsuit pending.


Michigan- 16 electoral votes, 148K vote difference, recount margin, and a lawsuit pending.


Georgia- Software glitch causes delay counting thousands of votes in Gwinnett County and

Georgia Secretary of State Dispatches Investigators to Atlanta Arena After Fulton County Discovers Election “Reporting Issue.”


Arizona- 10 electoral votes, 17K vote difference, recount margin, and a lawsuit pending.


COVID-19

Pfizer has come out with a vaccine regarding COVID-19 and states the COVID-19 vaccine is more than 90% effective.

The United States continues to see a rise in COVID cases, but still the highest numbers are in rural counties, specifically in the Midwest. However, the European Union recently surpassed the U.S. in cases and is quickly gaining relative to deaths. Sweden is also climbing and Europe is back in lockdown mode.


Economy, Market & Money Supply

The unemployment numbers fall to 6.9% as jobs grew for the sixth straight month, the Labor Department reports. Employers added 638,000 jobs, but job growth was down from September’s figure of 672,000 new jobs and far below the totals for June, July and August. In other words, we are likely at the tail end of the jobless gains.

Extreme strength last week is a sling shot for stocks.


The S&P 500 added more than 1% on four consecutive days last week. Since World War II, this is only the fourth time that has happened—the others were April 1970, October 1974, and October 1982. Future returns after those three instances were all quite bullish, up more than 20% on average a year later, which we will discuss later today on the LPL Research blog | LPL 11/9/2020 email, attached.


This is liked because of a log-jammed market and sideline cash plowing into the market as the election wrapped. 

  1. It may not be over, but a log-jammed government is still the most likely

  2. GA and Projected winner to an actual President-Elect Biden with GA senate race runoffs could derail this.

  3. The money supply is troubling

Thirteen-week annualized from money supply (M2NSA) fell this week from 10.9% to 10.7%. In normal times, this would remain fairly strong growth, but it is an absolute collapse from the money supply growth we saw this summer which peaked at 62.7%. The current growth rate is not enough to support the stock market at present levels given that it was pushed higher by so much earlier money growth. That said, 10% plus money growth is plenty to keep upward pressure on prices.



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Disclosures:

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Dollar cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities regardless of fluctuation in price levels of such securities. An investor should consider their ability to continue purchasing through fluctuating price levels. Such a plan does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets.

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